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Writer's pictureMolly Jordan

The Bumpy Road to the Market's Long-Term Average

Since 1926, the US stock market has rewarded investors with an annualized return of about 10%. But returns in any given year may be sky-high, extremely poor, or somewhere in between.


The graph shows calendar year returns for the S&P 500 Index since 1926. The shaded band marks the historical average of 10%, plus or minus 2 percentage points. The S&P 500 Index had a return within this range in only six of the past 93 calendar years. In most years, the index’s return was outside of the range—often above or below by a wide margin—with no obvious pattern.

  • Annual returns came within two percentage points of the market’s long-term average in just six of the past 98 years.


  • Yearly returns have ranged as high as up 54% and as low as down 43%.


  • Since 1926, annual returns have been positive 72 times and negative 26 times.


For investors, this data highlights the importance of looking beyond average returns and being aware of the range of potential outcomes.

Despite the year-to-year market fluctuations, investors can potentially increase their chances of having a positive outcome by maintaining a long-term focus. The image below shows the historical frequency of positive returns over rolling periods of one, five, and 10 years in the US market. The data shows that, while positive performance is never assured, investors’ odds improve over longer time horizons.


Bar chart displaying frequency of positive returns in S AND P 500 Index from 1926 to 2018, during 10-Year Periods (94.7% were positive), 5-Year Periods (87.7% were positive), and 1-Year Periods (75.2% were positive). Referenced under the heading: Tuning In to Different Frequencies  In US dollars. From January 1926–December 2018, there are 997 overlapping 10-year periods, 1,057 overlapping 5-year periods, and 1,105 overlapping 1-year periods. The first period starts in January 1926, the second period starts in February 1926, the third in March 1926, and so on. S&P data © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual returns may be lower.

While some investors might find it easy to stay the course in years with above average returns, periods of disappointing results may test an investor’s faith in equity markets. Understanding the range of potential outcomes can help you stick with a plan and ride out the inevitable ups and downs. What can help investors endure the ups and downs? While there is no magic solution, understanding how markets work and trusting market prices are good starting points. An asset allocation that aligns with personal risk tolerances and investment goals is also valuable. By carefully considering these and other concerns, investors can be more equipped to maintain their focus on their long-term goals in various market conditions.



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